TRANSFERS: Empty Middle Seats Reduce Covid-19 Risk

In this week’s Transfers: A new study finds the risk of catching Covid-19 is higher when airlines don’t leave middle seats empty, but the risk is pretty low nonetheless. Also, Belize is set to reopen for tourism; Austrian Airlines is replacing some airplane routes with trains; and why shaming beach goers is a bad idea.

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Planes

Are We Really Safer With Empty Middle Seats?

There’s been plenty of debate over middle seats lately. Just a week ago, American Airlines quietly announced that they would no longer leave middle seats empty. United had already abandoned any such pretense and has been willing to fully book flights. Even airlines that aren’t booking middle seats, like Alaska, will occasionally have full flights.

But does it really matter if the middle seats are left empty? Let’s just say yes… and no. New research suggests that your odds of contracting Covid-19 are about 1 in 14,000 when airlines block middle seats. Your odds of catching the virus are cut in half (just 1 in 7,000) when a plane is booked to capacity. Most experts say flying is safer than most indoor activities — restaurants, movie theaters, churches, and definitely bars. MIT professor Arnold Barnett’s research has not been peer-reviewed, and he admits some potential flaws. But his model also assumes passengers are not wearing masks. With masks, the odds of contracting the virus would diminish even further.

There Ought to Be a Law Against Middle Seats… or Not

Meanwhile, Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) says he’ll propose legislation requiring airlines to block middle seats during the pandemic. Merkley was on a crowded American Airlines flight and tweeted his disgust: “how many Americans will die bc you fill middle seats, w/ your customers shoulder to shoulder, hour after hour. This is incredibly irresponsible. People eat & drink on planes & must take off masks to do so. No way you aren’t facilitating spread of COVID infections.”

It’s a nice idea, because who wouldn’t like the extra room? But there are only two outcomes to rules blocking middle seats. The first is higher fares for everyone. We’re talking a basic supply and demand equation. When the supply of seats is lower, the prices go up. The second outcome is that airlines continue to bleed money, putting their very existence at risk. If the government demands that planes fly with limited capacity, they would need to do more to protect this critical infrastructure and the thousands of jobs it provides.

Proposal: Government Could Buy the Middle Seats

The Airlines Pilots Association proposed just such a solution a couple of weeks ago. They want the U.S. government to buy those middle seats and leave them empty. The SEATS (Safe Essential Air Transportation Seating) plan calls for the government to buy enough seats to allow passengers to keep their distance from one another. It’s a stimulus plan, but one that would give nervous passengers more confidence when booking flights.

How HEPA Air Filtration Keeps Passengers Safe

I’ve previously explained why I believe flying is safe. HEPA air filtration plays an important role, maybe THE most important role in preventing the spread of Covid-19:

Mainline jets have hospital-grade HEPA air filters, which according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “capture 99.9% of particles (bacteria, fungi, and larger viruses or virus clumps) 0.1–0.3 µm in diameter….the cabin air environment is not conducive to the spread of most infectious diseases.”

So the air on a plane is constantly being filtered and replaced with fresh air from outside the plane. (No, the air is not recycled). For a more detailed look at how HEPA air filters keep us safe, check out this article at View From the Wing.

Alaska Airlines is Handing Out Yellow Cards

I’m a big soccer fan and can thus appreciate how Alaska Airlines is dealing with face mask violators. Flight attendants have been empowered to issue yellow cards to “any guest who flagrantly refuses to wear a mask” on board one of their flights. It serves as a final warning to non-compliant passengers.

The yellow card serves the same function in soccer. It’s a final warning, and the second yellow will earn players a red card and a suspension. Alaska isn’t handing out red cards (too bad). But the airline will report those who continue to flaunt the rules.

Another Airline Declares Bankruptcy

AeroMexico has joined a growing list of airlines filing for bankruptcy in 2020. While the Mexican flag carrier intends to keep flying, CEO Andrés Conesa says the airline will look to “create a sustainable platform to succeed in an uncertain global economy.” AeroMexico is a member of SkyTeam Alliance, a grouping which also includes Delta Air Lines.

Italy Won’t Allow Passengers to Use Overhead Bins

This seems like a strange move, but 2020 is a very strange year. Italy is restricting the use of overhead bins on flights to, from and within the country. The restriction applies only to flights where social distancing is not carried out on board, according to Italy’s Civil Aviation Authority (ENAC). The reason is ostensibly to prevent passengers from congregating in the aisles, and potentially spreading Covid-19 aboard the aircraft. Airlines will not charge any fees to check what would normally be allowed as a carry-on bag.

Trains

Amtrak Service Cuts

Amtrak is cutting back service on nearly all its long-distance routes. A spokesperson tell The New York Times that Amtrak aims to better “align our service with demand” during the Covid-19 pandemic. But critics worry the cuts could become permanent.

Starting today, Amtrak has reduced service on its two New York-Miami services, the Silver Star and Silver Meteor. Between these two trains, New York and Miami will remain connected with one service daily. Cities served by just one of these two trains will see their service reduced to just 3 or 4 days a week.

More cuts are coming October 1st. All of Amtrak’s remaining long-distance routes (except the Auto Train, which will continue to operate daily between Virginia and Florida) will operate just three days per week.

Replacing Planes with Trains

Austrian Airlines will drop air service between Vienna International Airport (VIE) and Salzburg Airport (SZG), replacing planes with frequent rail service. Currently, just three daily trains operate between VIE and Salzburg’s central rail station. But on July 20th, service will increase to as many as 31 daily trains between the two points. The airline will utilize its AiRail partnership with passenger rail carrier ÖBB to offer seamless air/rail bookings.

As part of a coronavirus-related bailout, Austrian Airlines has agreed to reduce its emissions and switch to trains on direct routes that would take “considerably less than three hours.” Austrian is a subsidiary of German airline company Lufthansa and member of Star Alliance. Lufthansa continues to serve SZG via Frankfort (FRA).

Travel

Belize will Reopen to Travel on August 15th

The small Central American country of Belize plans to reopen its borders for tourists on August 15th. At the moment, even Americans can look forward to a vacation in one of my favorite places. There will be plenty of hoops to jump through, starting with a coronavirus swab. Visitors will need to show proof of a negative Covid-19 test within 72 hours prior to arrival, or take a test upon arrival at BZE airport.

Take the test before you go! If you arrive in Belize and then test positive, your vacation will be ruined. Authorities will then require you to quarantine in Belize for 14 days at your own expense.

Enough Beach Shaming Already, it’s Not the Problem

My wife and I have gone to the beach a few times since the beginning of the pandemic. It helps that we have beautiful white sand beaches just an hour from our house. We’ve followed the guidelines and found the beach to be safe and enjoyable.

But if you watch the news or read social media, you’d think we’re all out there giving everyone the coronavirus. A new article in The Atlantic asks: Is it Okay to Go to the Beach? Spoiler alert: Yes!

They quote Harvard epidemiologist Julia Marcos:

You’d think from the moral outrage about these beach photos that fun, in itself, transmits the virus. But when people find lower-risk ways to enjoy their lives, that’s actually a public-health win.

That said, you can’t ignore basic social distancing rules and other Covid-19 guidance. Be sure you know how to hit the beach safely, but go. By all means, go!

A Virgin Arrives in Nashville

Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Hotels has just opened its newest outlet in the United States. After opening locations in Chicago and Dallas, as well as a now closed location in San Francisco, the new Virgin Hotels Nashville is a pet-friendly hotel located right on Music Row. It features a cool rooftop pool and bar, the Funny Library Coffee Shop, and Virgin Hotels’ signature restaurant, the Commons Club.

The hotel hopes to appeal to locals as much as out-of-town guests — a place to drop in for coffee, cocktails, or a meal. They’re offering Tennessee residents a 35% discount on any stay.

Virgin Hotels continues to expand its footprint. New locations are coming soon to Las Vegas, New Orleans, New York, Palm Springs, Miami and Edinburgh, UK.

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“Transfers” is a regular column featuring a curated sampling of stories we’re reading this week.